Gulf Breeze Precinct 22 voters have sided with the past two eventual Republican presidential nominees in the early Preferential Elections.

It will be interesting to see whether that intriguing trend continues Tuesday, Jan. 31 as city voters get their chance to choose from among GOP presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum or Rick Perry in the fourth national primary/caucus.

John McCain in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2000 carried Precinct 22 on their way to their respective party nominations. The week-long 2012 early voting period begins this Saturday, Jan. 21 and runs through Saturday, Jan. 28.

While it’s unclear who will get the most votes in the city of Gulf Breeze, GOP poll-watchers know that Precinct 22 traditionally enjoys a higher percentage of voters than most other precincts in Santa Rosa County. Since the presidential preference election is the only issue on the ballot, it’s anyone’s guess how strong turnout will be.

In 2008, 48 percent of Precinct 22 voters went to the poll. Of the 1,550 Republican voters, 555 supported John McCain while 531 voted for Romney.

On the Democratic side, 517 voters went to Precinct 22 and favored Hilary Clinton (194) over John Edwards (146) and eventual presidential winner Barack Obama (145).

“I’m expecting a better-thanaverage turnout on this,” said Navarre resident Morgan Lamb, President of the Santa Rosa County Republican Club. “Santa Rosa is over 70-something percent registered Republicans now. People are pretty well motivated to turn this around and make us a Republican administration.

“As for the race, there’s still a lot of interest in Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich has dropped down pretty far in some other polls, but I expect there’s enough competitiveness there that we’ll get a good turnout. I anticipate that Romney will keep his lead.”

Romney will enter the Florida preferential election on a roll should he hold onto what is expected to be an important victory Saturday in South Carolina. A Quinnipiac University poll last week showed the former Massachusetts governor with a slight lead (46 percent to 43 percent) over the incumbent Obama in Florida. The poll, taken between Jan. 4-8, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Turnout was disappointingly low in 2000 when just 699 people (18.25 percent) voted in the Republican and Democratic presidential preference elections in Precinct 22. Bush was the runaway winner with 459 votes against McCain (74) and Alan Keyes (43). Al Gore topped Bill Bradley 94-27 on the Democratic side.

County Election Supervisor Ann Bodenstein said there had been 78 requests for absentee ballots as of Jan. 13.

“(Absentee) requests are very slack,” she said, “but we’ve had more military requests from those serving overseas. Anytime there is a president’s name on a ballot, the military is going to vote, including the presidential preference.”

Lamb said it’s unclear whether the leading GOP contenders will visit the area. Since northwest Florida’s population numbers are far smaller than the densely populated areas of south Florida, candidates are less likely to spend the money necessary to come to the westernmost part of the state, he said.

There are more registered Democrats (4,667,884) in Florida than Republicans (4,073,632). In Santa Rosa County, however, registered Republicans (64,194) outnumber Democrats (28,285) by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

“We get overlooked sometimes,” Lamb said. “There are a couple of counties in Miami where if all the Democrats turn out and vote in the general election, it would just blow us – the entire panhandle – out of the water. So when the candidates are spending their money, we are low on their priority list.”

That’s not to say that Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Perry or Santorum won’t fly to Pensacola or Fort Walton Beach for brief campaign appearances.

“If Romney (wins) South Carolina and comes to Florida on the heels of three wins, he’s going to be on a roll and be hard to beat,” Lamb said.

The names of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and John Huntsman remain on the Florida ballot despite having suspended or terminated their campaigns prior to South Carolina.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held in the Tampa Bay Times Forum beginning on Aug. 27. The GOP will coronate its nominee in its bid to make Obama a one-term president.

“There is a lot of excitement in the Florida Republican Party to keep the enthusiasm and excitement high going into the convention,” Lamb said.