Sometimes, it's all so sensible

You naturally can't see the defenders' cards when you're declarer, but in the majority of cases you're expected to win as many tricks as if you did see them. Some players call the ability to do this a sixth sense, but it's really nothing more than drawing logical conclusions from the clues at hand.

Take this deal where West leads the king of clubs, which you win with dummy's ace. Whether or not you make the contract resolves itself into one simple issue: If you lose two trump tricks, you make the contract; if you lose three trump tricks, you go down one. Aside from a club, you have no other losers.

It is obvious that East cannot have the A-K of spades, because West would not have an opening bid without at least one of them. It is therefore sensible to assume that West has either one or both of them.

For this reason, it is best to tackle trumps by leading them first from the South hand. Declarer therefore crosses to the ace of diamonds at trick two and leads a low trump.

West produces the eight, and if declarer plays the queen from dummy, he loses three trump tricks and goes down one.

However, there are good reasons for ducking West's eight. Declarer knows that if the spades are 2-2, his play does not matter because he cannot lose more than two trump tricks. He therefore assumes a 3-1 division.

It is highly unlikely, in view of West's play of the eight, that he has the A-K of spades. Accordingly, South plays dummy's six on the basis that East has either the singleton or doubleton ace or king, and winds up making the contract.