Brace yourself for an active hurricane season, forecasters warn
BY FRANKLIN HAYES Gulf Breeze News franklin@gulfbreezenews.com

Although the Gulf Breeze area dodged the bullet in 2006, the peninsula may not be as luck in 2007 forecasters say.

Hurricane season is still about two months away, but meteorologists at Accuweather.com have released their preliminary forecast for the 2007 Hurricane season. Hurricane forecast pioneer Dr. William Gray with Colorado State University released his preliminary forecast in December. A spokesperson for the National Weather Service's (NWS) National Hurricane Center said the federal entity would not release its prediction until May.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, headed by Dr. Gray, released a report in December predicting 14 named storms in 2007 and the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Texas would have a 40 percent chance or a major hurricane landfall.

Accuweather.com's Hurricane Center Chief Forecaster, Joe Bastardi, also predicts a rough storm cycle for the Gulf Coast area.

"We'll see storms on the prowl in the Gulf again," Bastardi said. "The entire region- including New Orleans and other areas that are still rebuilding after Katrina- is susceptible to landfalling storms. Of concern to consumers everywhere is that there is so much oil and natural gas drilling and refining occurring in the Gulf. This year's stronger storms are likely to cause the kind of disruption that will be felt in wallets and pocketbooks."

Locally, pocket books could be hurting more from a direct hit than from oil prices, as Hurricane Ivan was responsible for more than $14.2 billion in damages, according to NWS.

The two weather-monitoring agencies disagree on what exactly could lead to another destructive and costly storm season. NWS officials credit the formation of a La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"Although other scientific factors affect the frequency of hurricanes, there tends to be a greater-than-normal number of Atlantic hurricanes and fewerthan normal number of eastern Pacific hurricanes during La Niña events," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator.

However, Accuweather officials believe the rocky hurricane seasons of 2004/2005 have more to do with the climate than La Niña. According to Accuweather.com, the development of an El Niño last year has been frequently cited as a reason that the 2006 hurricane season resulted in few landfalling storms, and the development of a La Niña this year is already causing some forecasters to project a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones in 2007.

"Last year's season wasn't truncated because of an El Niño," said Ken Reeves, Director of Forecast Operations for Accuweather. "After all, there was a much stronger El Niño in effect in 2004, and that was a significantly more active hurricane season than last year. Similarly, a La Niña won't be the main driver of this year's hurricane season."

Bastardi cited more direct causes for active storm season by saying, "We are living in a time of climatic hardship. We're in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception. One of the ways this manifests itself is in the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms. Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern shows no sign of reversing in the near term."

Hurricane season officially starts June 1.